Six months ago, we warned in this same space that the escalating conflict in the Middle East had ceased to be a regional issue and had become a destabilizing factor in global commodity markets (see "Conflict in Iran: The Perfect Storm Threatening Animal Feed," April 2026). What was then an emerging risk has now become the new reality for the sector: rising prices and shortages in the olein market have only worsened.

Crude oil prices remain high, and the domino effect continues.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices persistently high. In fact, Brent crude averaged around $102 a barrel in September—fluctuating between $93 and $110 as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated—with no signs of easing. As long as crude remains expensive, biodiesel will continue to be profitable, and biofuel refineries will continue to absorb vegetable oils—soybean, palm, and sunflower—that were previously destined for the food supply chain. This shift in supply from the food sector to the energy sector, which we anticipated in April, has become structural: it is not a temporary spike, but rather sustained competition for the same raw material.

Less by-product available, prices at record highs

The impact is particularly severe on oleins and fats intended for animal feed. With the reduced availability of vegetable oils and their refining byproducts, the olein market is grappling with two simultaneous problems: record-high farmgate prices and a product shortage that makes it difficult to secure regular volumes. Adding to the rising cost of raw materials is the increased expense of transportation and auxiliary inputs, which puts pressure on both the source and the destination, squeezing profit margins throughout the entire supply chain.

A logistical strain that doesn't let up

Added to the cost is the uncertainty surrounding supply. Shipping routes remain affected by the conflict, lead times are lengthening, and planning is becoming more complicated. For a sector that works with perishable goods and long-term contracts, the combination of volatile prices and strained logistics necessitates anticipating and managing supply with a level of care that wasn't required a year ago.

RIOSA's commitment

In this scenario, at RIOSA we are reinforcing what has always been our priority: guaranteeing our customers a stable supply and consistent quality, even when the market is against us. We are closely monitoring the evolution of the conflict and prices to make decisions as early as possible and mitigate, to the best of our ability, the impact on livestock farming. As we said in April, this is not just a war for geopolitical control: it is a struggle for resources that are the first link in the global food chain. And in this struggle, supplier reliability has become as scarce—and as crucial—as the raw materials themselves.